A novela acabou

*Por Eduardo Hey Martins

Bolsonaro disse sim ao PL (e vice-versa)

o Partido Liberal (PL) oficializou a filiação do presidente Jair Bolsonaro (PL) durante uma cerimônia em Brasília, que contou com a presença de alguns ministros de Estado e parlamentares apoiadores do Presidente, entre outras autoridades. No mesmo dia, o senador Flávio Bolsonaro e o ministro Rogério Marinho (Desenvolvimento Regional) também se filiaram à legenda. A filiação foi possível após os esforços do presidente do PL, Valdemar Costa, em acomodar os interesses de Bolsonaro em importantes palanques políticos, como São Paulo e o Nordeste. A chegada de Bolsonaro deve consolidar o PL como a maior bancada da Câmara dos Deputados após o período de janela partidária e consolida a aliança do atual presidente com o centrão, saindo do campo dos candidatos “outsiders”.

 

E quem ficará com ele no altar das eleições será Doria

No último sábado (27), o PSDB anunciou que o governador de São Paulo, João Doria, venceu as prévias para ser o candidato da sigla à presidência em 2022. Em um único turno, Doria recebeu 53,99% dos votos contra 44,66% do governador Eduardo Leite (RS), seu principal adversário. O clima de divisão continua, cabendo a Doria buscar apoio interno à sua candidatura e apaziguar os conflitos na sigla. A divisão pode dificultar o início efetivo da campanha de Doria e pode ser uma barreira para uma atuação unitária do partido. Até o momento, as pesquisas não apontam um cenário favorável para o governador de São Paulo, com apenas 5% nas intenções de voto e alta rejeição em São Paulo. Esses cenários também apresentam desafios para uma candidatura mais competitiva. A vitória nas prévias deve promover uma migração de deputados próximos a Bolsonaro para outros partidos e potencializa a campanha de Rodrigo Garcia para a sucessão no governo estadual.

 

Para completar o enredo, Mendonça foi confirmado no STF

O Senado Federal aprovou, na noite de quarta-feira (2), a indicação do ex-AGU André Mendonça ao cargo de ministro do Supremo Tribunal Federal por 47 votos a favor e 32 contrários. Mendonça foi indicado ao Tribunal em julho pelo presidente Bolsonaro e esperou pouco mais de quatro meses para ter sua sabatina agendada. O placar de aprovação de Mendonça foi o menor dentre todos os ministros já aprovados recentemente, superando o do ministro Edson Fachin, que teve a sua nomeação aprovada com 52 votos. A aprovação foi a maior derrota política do presidente da CCJ, senador Davi Alcolumbre (DEM/AP), que esperava a rejeição do nome. É possível que Alcolumbre busque retaliar senadores dos quais considera traidores, com o represamento de propostas de interesse dentro da CCJ. Quanto a Mendonça, apesar dos compromissos firmados na sabatina, é possível que siga com um perfil mais conservador em decisões de pauta social. A nomeação de Mendonça pode apaziguar os ânimos no Tribunal, que vinha sofrendo diversos empates em matérias importantes, bem como sobrecarregando os demais ministros com a distribuição de processos. Agora, cabe ao presidente do STF, Luiz Fux, agendar a data da cerimônia de posse do mais novo ministro da Corte.

 

A PEC dos Precatórios terá ainda mais alguns capítulos

O Plenário do Senado Federal aprovou, em dois turnos, a PEC 23/2021, que trata do pagamento de precatórios e viabiliza o novo “Auxílio Brasil”, mas com algumas mudanças. Uma delas foi a inserção de dispositivo para fomentar a garantia de renda básica a todo brasileiro em situação de vulnerabilidade social, além da destinação de R$ 15 bilhões exclusivamente ao atendimento de despesas de vacinação contra a Covid-19, programa de transferência de renda, ou relacionadas a ações emergenciais e temporárias de caráter socioeconômico. Em 2022, o referido recurso será encaminhado exclusivamente para o “Auxílio Brasil”. Um dos pontos que foram negociados foi do pagamento de precatórios do FUNDEF, os quais agora deverão ser realizados em três parcelas anuais e sucessivas, a partir do ano seguinte ao da sua expedição. Além do mais, o pagamento foi retirado do Teto de Gastos para ampliar a destinação de recursos para outros precatórios. Outra alteração importante foi a supressão das medidas relacionadas à securitização de dívidas tributárias, vistas como uma forma de burlar a regra de não vinculação dos recursos. Mesmo com um texto que não seja o esperado pela equipe econômica, o encaminhamento célere demonstra a capacidade da base governista em compor uma articulação robusta com todas as bancadas. Com o encaminhamento da matéria à Câmara dos Deputados, os parlamentares analisarão cada uma das modificações realizadas pelo Senado Federal. Caso exista alguma alteração, o texto retorna aos senadores para deliberação, o que deixaria o calendário apertado para a aprovação da medida antes do recesso parlamentar.

 

Enquanto o Orçamento Secreto permanece parcialmente encoberto

A Câmara dos Deputados aprovou, nesta segunda-feira (29), a execução e empenho das emendas de relator-geral (RP9), o chamado Orçamento Secreto. A resolução aprovada estabelece um teto para as emendas e prevê a divulgação na internet, mas sem especificar o nome do parlamentar. A proposta vem gerando rusgas entre o Congresso e o STF desde novembro, quando o tribunal suspendeu o pagamento das emendas. A decisão da Suprema Corte foi uma tentativa de adotar medidas de transparência na execução desse recurso, mas acabou sendo rechaçada pelos deputados e senadores. Embora o relator da proposta afirme que o texto aprovado atende completamente a decisão do STF, muitos parlamentares questionaram o ponto da transparência, uma vez que o nome do parlamentar não será divulgado. A reação do STF ao texto aprovado ainda permanece um mistério.

*Às sextas-feiras, o Núcleo de Inteligência e Análise Política (NIAP) da BMJ Consultores Associados publica no blog um panorama com os principais fatos políticos da semana. Nesta semana, a autoria é do consultor Eduardo Hey Martins

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