Releitura de longas histórias

*Por Eduardo Hey Martins

 

Virando a página da CPI

A CPI da Pandemia concluiu os seus trabalhos após seis meses de acaloradas discussões e aprovou seu relatório final. O parecer do senador Renan Calheiros (MDB/AL) foi aprovado por 7 votos favoráveis e 4 contrários. O extenso documento de 1.289 páginas pediu o indiciamento de 78 pessoas e duas empresas, tendo atribuído nove crimes ao presidente Jair Bolsonaro. O documento foi entregue ao procurador-geral da República, Augusto Aras, e ao ministro do Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF), Alexandre de Moraes, relator do inquérito que investiga a disseminação de notícias falsas. A CPI também pretende encaminhar uma cópia do relatório para o Tribunal Penal Internacional. A aprovação do relatório final já era esperada, considerando que os senadores governistas compunham o grupo minoritário do colegiado. Além disso, foram feitas alterações propostas pelo G7, em razão de algumas discordâncias com a versão apresentada pelo relator. O indiciamento de um único governador, Wilson Lima (PSC/AM), é uma vitória para Omar Aziz (PSD/AM), presidente da CPI. Ele é um dos principais postulantes ao governo do Amazonas no próximo ano e foi bastante crítico à gestão de Lima e ao seu alinhamento com o Governo Federal durante a pandemia. Com isso, Aziz espera disparar nas pesquisas de popularidade e garantir sua vaga no governo estadual. Os resultados do relatório no curto prazo se restringem apenas ao campo discursivo, sem se vislumbrar que Bolsonaro será indiciado por algum dos crimes a ele atribuídos no relatório. A criação da Frente Parlamentar de Observatório da Pandemia, como sucessora da CPI, ainda é incerta, já que o presidente do Senado sinalizou que pretende “virar a página” sobre o assunto.

 

O começo de um novo capítulo para a terceira via

O presidente do Senado, Rodrigo Pacheco, se filiou ao PSD, comandado pelo ex-prefeito de São Paulo, Gilberto Kassab. Em seu discurso, Pacheco criticou extremismos e afirmou a necessidade de união para enfrentar os desafios do Brasil. O senador e o PSD estão tentando deslanchar a imagem do parlamentar ter um perfil moderado, visando um discurso de estabilidade e desenvolvimento. A participação de Pacheco na COP26, para demonstrar ao mundo que o Brasil está interessado no debate internacional sobre sustentabilidade, também faz parte da sua construção política para o ano eleitoral. O ex-ministro Sergio Moro, por sua vez, já negocia sua ida para o Podemos, mas, até o momento, há indícios de que Moro possa disputar uma vaga no Senado por São Paulo ou Paraná. A busca por uma terceira via competitiva para as eleições de 2022 ainda gera dúvidas aos partidos sobre a melhor estratégia. As dificuldades são um dos principais indícios para o planejamento da candidatura de Moro, mas o Podemos ainda acredita que o ex-ministro seja um presidenciável com alto potencial de vitória. O Palácio do Planalto entende que a candidatura de Moro possa atrair certos segmentos da direita, mas também estima que a figura do lavajatista poderia aumentar o sentimento antipetista e reduzir o favoritismo do ex-presidente Lula na disputa.

 

A solução para os precatórios continuam sendo um conto de fadas

Pela terceira vez, a deliberação da PEC dos Precatórios foi adiada na Câmara dos Deputados. A matéria é uma aposta do Planalto para garantir o financiamento do Auxílio Brasil e o benefício temporário que deu o que falar na semana passada. O relator, deputado Hugo Motta (Republicanos/PB), justifica o adiamento por conta do quórum insuficiente para votação, com os corredores do Câmara ainda vazios após o retorno das atividades presenciais. No entanto, nos bastidores, entende-se que o adiamento se dá pela falta de acordo para aprovação da proposta. A rejeição simbolizaria mais uma derrota do presidente Arthur Lira (PP/AL). Vale lembrar que, por se tratar de uma PEC são necessários ao menos 308 votos favoráveis em dois turnos para que o texto seja aprovado e siga para deliberação do Senado. O presidente do Senado, Rodrigo Pacheco, apoia a celeridade na tramitação da matéria em razão da urgência do tema, considerando, inclusive, votar a PEC diretamente em Plenário, sem passar pela análise da Comissão de Constituição e Justiça (CCJ).

 

A história das fake news chegou a um fim?

Na quinta-feira (28), o TSE encerrou o julgamento da ação apresentada pelo PT que pedia a cassação da chapa Bolsonaro-Mourão. Os ministros entenderam que, mesmo havendo disparo em massa de mensagens falsas com o fim de influenciar o pleito, não havia provas suficientes que demonstrassem a efetiva manipulação das eleições. Para Bolsonaro, a não-cassação de sua chapa foi uma de suas principais vitórias em tribunais até o momento, visto a sua relação turbulenta com o STF. A decisão já era esperada em função da proximidade com o encerramento do mandato presidencial. Apesar da vitória, o ministro Alexandre de Moraes, que presidirá o TSE nas eleições de 2022, aproveitou o julgamento para fazer críticas à prática de disparo de mensagens falsas e antecipar que, em uma futura rediscussão de tema similar, o resultado seria diferente. Moraes afirmou que se ocorresse novamente os fatos verificados na ação no próximo pleito, a chapa seria cassada e os responsáveis presos.

 

Nos juros, a leitura é de que continuem subindo

Na quarta-feira (27), o Comitê de Política Econômica (Copom) elevou a taxa básica de juros (Selic) em 1,5 ponto percentual. Dessa forma, a taxa Selic atinge o patamar de 7,75% ao ano, seu maior nível desde 2017. A última vez que a Selic havia sido elevada em mais de um ponto percentual foi em 2002, quando o Comitê elevou a taxa em 3 pontos. É relevante notar que o Comitê previa um aumento de apenas 1 ponto percentual neste encontro, conforme divulgado na ata da reunião de setembro. A escolha de elevar a taxa básica de juros meio ponto percentual acima do previsto anteriormente foi resposta direta às incertezas geradas no mercado após as afirmações do ministro da Economia, Paulo Guedes, sobre a possibilidade de ocorrer um furo no teto de gastos. Dessa forma, apesar do Banco Central não acreditar que exista risco fiscal, em razão da elevação dos gastos públicos sem uma contrapartida de receita, a decisão tomada pelo Copom demonstra a preocupação da autoridade monetária com as declarações feitas pelo Poder Executivo e seus possíveis efeitos na economia no curto prazo. Novo aumento na taxa básica elevará a dívida pública em razão dos títulos indexados segundo esta taxa, pressionando, ainda mais, o teto de gastos. Resta saber se o solavanco nos juros não irá frear o crescimento já diminuto da economia brasileira neste ano e se o emprego não será reduzido. Será que a estagflação vem aí?

 

E no mercado de trabalho que mais páginas de carteiras de trabalho estão assinadas

A taxa de desemprego recuou para 13,2% no trimestre terminado em agosto, representando uma redução de 1,4 ponto percentual em relação ao trimestre terminado em maio. Desta forma, 13,7 milhões de brasileiros se encontram desocupados. A redução foi impulsionada por um aumento no número de pessoas ocupadas, avançando 4% em relação ao trimestre anterior. A redução na taxa de desemprego é um bom sinal, mas já era esperado que ela seria reduzida neste trimestre, com o avanço da vacinação e retomada dos empregos no setor de serviços. Entretanto, é importante notar que houve uma redução na renda média de 4,3%. Isso mostra que, apesar de mais pessoas estarem empregadas, são empregos de menor valor agregado. Caso a tendência se mantenha, isso representará uma retomada da economia ao custo dos mais pobres.

*Às sextas-feiras, o Núcleo de Inteligência e Análise Política (NIAP) da BMJ Consultores Associados publica no blog um panorama com os principais fatos políticos da semana. Nesta semana, a autoria é do consultor Eduardo Hey Martins

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